On October 24, 2026, one of the most anticipated UFC fights will take place in Abu Dhabi — Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili. Two former opponents, two principled victories, and one championship belt. Who will emerge stronger in this decisive meeting? The BET RATING editorial team analyzes the fighters' styles, the history of their rivalry, and the betting odds.
Yan — Dvalishvili 3: Date, Time, and Venue of the Fight
The third fight between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili will take place on October 24, 2026, at UFC 333. The event will be held at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
| Event | UFC 333 |
|---|---|
| Date | October 24, 2026 |
| Venue | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi |
| Weight Class | Flyweight — up to 61.2 kg |
| Status | UFC Title Fight |
| Format | 5 rounds of 5 minutes |
| Head-to-Head Record | 1:1 |
Yan and Dvalishvili will co-headline the event. The main event of UFC 333 will feature a showdown between Alexander Volkanovski and Movsar Evloev.
The main card is scheduled to start at 21:00 Moscow time. The exact time for Yan and Dvalishvili's fight will depend on the duration of the preceding bouts.
History of the Rivalry: Why is the Third Fight Special?
The rivalry between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili has already become one of the most discussed stories in the UFC flyweight division.
First Fight: Dvalishvili's Victory in 2023
In March 2023, Merab Dvalishvili defeated Petr Yan by unanimous decision.
The Georgian fighter utilized a high pace, constant pressure, and numerous takedown attempts. Yan struggled with the need to continuously defend against grappling while also engaging in striking exchanges.
It was then that Dvalishvili demonstrated how effective his strategy of exhausting his opponent could be.
Second Fight: Petr Yan's Revenge in December 2025
On December 7, 2025, at UFC 323, Petr Yan avenged his loss.
The Russian fighter won by unanimous decision and reclaimed the UFC flyweight championship belt.
In the second encounter, Yan was able to better control the distance, effectively counter the grappling, and impose his own fighting style on Dvalishvili.
This victory showed that Dvalishvili's style was not an insurmountable challenge for the Russian fighter.
Third Fight: Who Will Settle the Score?
Now the head-to-head record is tied — 1:1.
For Yan, the upcoming fight will be a title defense. For Dvalishvili, it is an opportunity to reclaim the belt and prove that his loss in the rematch was an exception.
Unlike their previous encounters, both athletes have a detailed understanding of each other's strengths and weaknesses.
Therefore, the outcome of the third fight may depend not so much on unexpected technical decisions but on the quality of preparation and the ability to adapt during the fight.
Comparison of Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili
| Parameter | Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| Country | Russia | Georgia |
| Main Style | Boxing, Striking Techniques | Wrestling, Pressure |
| Main Advantage | Accuracy of Strikes and Combinations | Pace and Takedowns |
| Striking | High Level | Active, Pressure-Oriented |
| Wrestling | Strong Takedown Defense | One of the Main Tools |
| Stamina | High | Extremely High Pace |
| Current Status | UFC Champion | Former UFC Champion |
Stylistically, this matchup features a striker against one of the most active wrestlers in the division. However, reducing the fight solely to a clash of boxing and wrestling would be an oversimplification.
Yan is capable of defending against takedowns, while Dvalishvili can apply pressure even without successfully taking his opponent to the ground.
Betting Odds for Yan — Dvalishvili 3
As of October 21, 2026, bookmakers consider Petr Yan the favorite in the upcoming fight.
| Outcome | Odds | Probability Based on Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan Wins | 1.60 | 62.5% |
| Merab Dvalishvili Wins | 2.44 | 41.0% |
Source of odds: publication “Vedomosti.Sport” from October 19, 2026, bookmaker BETCITY. Odds may change. Percentages are calculated without excluding the bookmaker's margin.
Note: The total probability exceeds 100%. This is due to the bookmaker's margin. Therefore, the values cannot be directly considered as objective probabilities of the fighters' victory.
Why Do Bookmakers Consider Yan the Favorite?
The main argument is the result of the second encounter.
Yan has already demonstrated the ability to neutralize a significant portion of Dvalishvili's attacking arsenal.
Additionally, the Russian fighter has advantages in strike accuracy, distance management, and technical variety in combination work.
However, being the favorite does not guarantee victory. Dvalishvili remains an extremely dangerous opponent, especially in prolonged five-round fights.
BET RATING Analysis: Five Factors That Will Decide the Fight
1. Yan's Takedown Defense
A key element of the Russian's strategy is to prevent his opponent from turning every attacking combination into grappling at the cage.
Even unsuccessful takedown attempts can drain energy and disrupt rhythm.
If Yan can quickly break free from clinches and return to the center of the octagon, his chances will significantly increase.
2. Dvalishvili's Pace
Merab is known for his ability to maintain intense pressure throughout the fight.
He can combine strikes, takedown attempts, and cage work, forcing his opponent to constantly react.
The more time Yan spends on the defensive, the harder it will be for him to score points with his own attacks.
3. Yan's Body Work
Body shots can become an important tool against an opponent who relies on stamina.
However, attacking the body must be done cautiously: an overly open position can create opportunities for takedowns.
4. Control of the Octagon Center
For Yan, it is crucial to avoid prolonged grappling exchanges at the cage.
The center of the octagon allows for more effective use of movement, counterattacks, and combinations.
Dvalishvili, on the other hand, will be interested in closing the distance and imposing physical contact.
5. Championship Rounds
The fourth and fifth rounds could be decisive if the fight is close.
Merab can maintain a high pace, but Yan has already proven that he can effectively work against him over five rounds.
The winner will be the one who can better manage their energy and maintain effectiveness in the final part of the fight.
Three Possible Fight Scenarios
Scenario #1: Yan Controls the Distance
The Russian fighter defends against most takedown attempts, works in combinations, and scores points with accurate strikes.
In this case, the most logical outcome would be a victory for Yan by decision.
Scenario #2: Dvalishvili Imposes Grappling
Merab closes the distance, regularly pressing his opponent against the cage and forcing him to constantly defend.
If the Georgian athlete can control a significant portion of the rounds, his chances of winning by judges' decision will increase.
Scenario #3: Early Resolution
Although the previous encounters ended in judges' decisions, an early outcome cannot be ruled out.
Jan's precise counterattacks or Dvalishvili's successful grappling can change the course of the fight at any moment.
However, considering the history of their rivalry, a prolonged fight seems to be the more likely scenario.
BET RATING Prediction: Who Will Win on October 24?
BET RATING Editorial Prediction – Petr Yan wins by judges' decision.
We give a slight edge to the reigning champion for three reasons.
- Yan has already demonstrated successful adaptation to Dvalishvili's style.
- The Russian fighter has a more diverse striking arsenal.
- Defense against grappling and distance control can limit Merab's effectiveness.
That said, Yan's advantage cannot be considered overwhelming.
Dvalishvili is capable of changing the fight's dynamics by increasing the number of takedown attempts and the intensity of pressure.
Final BET RATING Prediction
Favorite: Petr Yan
Expected Scenario: Prolonged Fight
Proposed Outcome: Yan wins by judges' decision
Confidence in Prediction: Moderate
This prediction is an analytical opinion of the BET RATING editorial team and is based on the study of fighter statistics, their previous bouts, technical characteristics, current form, and betting odds. The material presented is for informational purposes only and does not constitute individual betting advice. Any sports match carries uncertainty, so even the most reasoned prediction does not guarantee a specific outcome. Betting odds may change before the fight begins. The BET RATING editorial team recommends approaching sports betting responsibly, considering financial risks, and not using funds for betting that could impact your financial well-being.
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